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Election Day is Next Week – Here’s What We’re Watching

The House of Representatives:

• All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, along with six non-voting Delegate positions, are up for grabs. With 45 House members not running for re-election and many competitive races, there will likely be significant turnover, leading to many new faces in Congress and possibly a reorganization of House committees.
• The House is currently controlled by Republicans with a 220-212 margin over Democrats, while three seats are currently vacant. This balance of power will determine whether:
  • Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) continues as Speaker, or if
  • Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) takes the gavel if Democrats gain a majority.
• Control of the House dictates leadership across its committees, as the majority party selects committee chairs and generally holds proportionate representation in each committee.
• With Republicans in control, they currently lead all House committees. This would shift if Democrats gain a majority.
• Committee chairs are chosen within each party, although membership distribution doesn’t always strictly follow the House’s overall composition.
• Notably:
  • Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC), who currently chairs the House Education and Workforce Committee, is term-limited from remaining Committee Chair. Likely successors include:
    • Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI)
    • Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT)
• Additionally, re-elected members may switch committees to pursue seats on prestigious committees like Appropriations, Ways & Means, and Commerce, which could significantly alter committee compositions.
• The upcoming changes in committee leadership, membership, and potentially the overall House majority could reshape legislative priorities in 2025, especially in areas like workforce development, currently overseen by the House Education and Workforce Committee. This turnover and restructuring could have a lasting impact on policy-making and committee focus within the House.

The Senate:

• One-third of the U.S. Senate seats will be contested, with eight Senators deciding not to run for re-election.
• The Senate is currently controlled by the Democrats, holding a narrow majority with 47 seats, alongside four Independents who typically vote with them, compared to the Republicans’ 49 seats.
• If Democrats retain control:
• Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) is expected to continue as Majority Leader.
• If Republicans gain more seats than Democrats:
• They will select a new Majority Leader to set the Senate’s agenda.
• In the event of a 50-50 split, the newly elected Vice President would cast the deciding vote and determine Senate control.
• Control over the Senate also dictates the leadership and composition of its committees:
• Democrats currently chair all Senate committees. A shift in majority would hand Republicans control of committee leadership.
• Committee membership is usually distributed to reflect the Senate’s overall makeup. For example, if one party holds 55% of the Senate seats, they would fill around 55% of each committee’s seats.
• The outcome of the Senate race will not only affect the leadership and legislative direction of the upper chamber but also the committee dynamics that play a vital role in shaping, reviewing, and advancing legislation across a wide array of policy areas.

What does this all mean?

We will be closely watching on Election Day to see:

• Which party will control each chamber.
• Which incumbents are re-elected or replaced.
• Which members have a chance to become committee chairs.

As in previous years, election results may not be known for days or weeks, and some close races could result in a recount or a run-off election. We will report our findings in:

• Weekly NAWB News
• Policy Alert emails
• During our next Public Policy PowerUp on Friday, Nov. 22.
  • At this event (free and exclusively for NAWB members), we will do a deep dive into what the 119th Congress is shaping up to look like—and what policies are likely to be pursued—when the new Congress is sworn into office on Jan. 7, 2025.

Make Your Voice Heard!

With less than a week left until Election Day 2024, use [this resource] to check the rules in your state regarding:

• Registration
• Mail ballots
• Early voting

Make a plan to vote to ensure your voice is heard!